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Wavering temperatures a trend right before meteorological spring

Wavering temperatures a trend right before meteorological spring

MARK NANCE/Sun-Gazette Crocuses begin to push through the leaves next to the South Williamsport Church of Christ on Wednesday. The bulbs were planted by the late Mary Askey many years ago. She cared for the flowerbeds for many years until she left the area. The crocus still bloom each spring, along with grape hyacinth, daffodils and other flowers.

Robins are chirping. Crocuses are blooming, and meteorological spring is Wednesday. Still, it remains February, a month when temperatures have been shown over the years to fluctuate from warm enough for short-sleeves to days requiring coats and gloves.

Despite feeling rather comfortable for this time of year — with the record-high temperature for Feb. 22 set at 66 degrees set in 1974, and Wednesday reaching into the upper 50s, said Aaron Tyburski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service — the month is a master of fluctuation, according to record high-and-low temperatures kept by the forecasting service.

The service provided the following list of temperature records for mid-February:

• Feb. 22 — low, 15 degrees, in 1963;

• Feb. 23 — high, 70, 1985; low, 20, 1972;

• Feb. 24 — high, 71, 1985; low, 16, 1914;

• Feb. 25 — high, 69, 1976; low, 16, 1934.

Today, the predicted high temperature will be in the mid- to upper 60s, coming close to the record for the date.

Asked why such unseasonable warmth is occurring, Tyburski described it as a combination of high pressure shooting upward into the atmosphere at a height of 18,000 feet and a warm southerly wind.

“What that does is allow a lot of sunshine and dry air to prevail,” he said. “The high pressure is keeping away most of the precipitation and there appears to be almost no snowmelt.”

The blanket of warmth should last to Saturday, with a front arriving early in the afternoon, dropping temperatures back to normal for this time of year, and continuing to keep the high of 40 on Sunday and Monday.

Tyburski said meteorological spring continues through to May.

“Twelve months are broken into the seasons – winter, spring, summer and fall,” he said.

Looking at the long-term forecast, Tyburski said he sees above-normal temperatures in spring and probably normal or average precipitation amounts.

“The mild weather seen should continue through spring,” he said, unable to see any ice-cold air masses moving in from Canada for any extended periods.

“You can always get a day or two of cold, but then it goes mild again,” he said of the trend in 2017.

As always, the possibility of heavy rain and flash-flooding is possible, however, with the trace amount of snow accumulation in the mountains and dry weather, flooding is less likely to occur.

“We have minimal snow cover and we see flooding events in the early spring when it’s warm, rains a lot and combines with snowmelt, causing rivers and streams to rise,” he said.

As for pollen counts, the abnormally warm weather has impacted allergy sufferers already in southern Virginia and Illinois, he said. Trees are budding and causing issues with pollen, he said.

The nice situation about Pennsylvania is the mild air has taken hold with some nights that go below freezing, which inhibits tree pollen, he said.

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