Election 2018: Who’s up, who’s down?
Looking ahead to Election 2018, the numbers are close enough for either party to end up in control of the House, the Senate or both. The final outcome will be determined by a combination of the races in play, the fundamentals in each race, and the strength of the political winds in November.
To track all of this, I’ve rolled out a new service at ScottRasmussen.com that will provide constantly updated Scoreboards for the Senate, House and Governor’s races. In addition to the overall scoreboards, we provide a status and background page for each and every race.
The Senate Scoreboard shows that if the Democrats get good turnout on Election Day, they could end up with a 51-49 majority by picking up Republican held seats in Nevada and Arizona. On the other hand, if the Republicans enjoy a good night, they could add to their majority and end up with a 55 to 45 advantage. Republicans would pick up seats held by Democrats in Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and West Virginia.
At ScottRasmussen.com, our Scoreboards will always present a range of potential outcomes to reflect the reality that none of us know what the political environment and turnout will be in November. Most likely, the gap between the different possible outcomes will grow smaller over time as we get a better handle on the dynamics. But, given our volatile political environment, even that can’t be taken for granted.
In the House, our Scoreboard shows that a good Democratic turnout would leave Nancy Pelosi’s party just short of a majority with 213 seats (218 are needed for control). That’s a fairly normal midterm election result with the party out of power gaining ground. However, some people anticipate this could be a “wave” election for Democrats with extraordinary turnout. If that happens, they could end up with a majority of 232 Democrats to just 203 Republicans.
Individual race ratings at ScottRasmussen.com are calculated by aggregating projections of pundits such as the Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Decision Desk, and Inside Elections. As the year unfolds, we will be adding other pundits, additional data, and our own assessment to the calculation. All information used to reach our decision for each race will be available on the site.
It’s important to stress the preliminary nature of this and how many different factors could shift results. One major factor is that court cases in several states have so far successfully challenged the maps that define their Congressional Districts. If these maps are re-drawn in advance of the 2018 elections, that could have a significant impact on the final outcome.
In addition to rating the races, ScottRasmussen.com will provide a wealth of additional information through a partnership with Ballotpedia, the encyclopedia of American politics. Currently, we provide access to candidate bios, key demographic data, and Ballotpedia’s profile of the race. In the coming weeks and months, we’ll be adding a wealth of other information concerning issues, key votes, endorsements, prominent campaign spokespersons, campaign ad reviews and more.