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Local News

Oil dependency, climate change drive automobile industry trends

By HEATHER GACH hgach@sungazette.com
POSTED: July 22, 2008

Article Photos


When David Ganss was a young boy, his father purchased a 1977 Chrysler Town and Country "because he wanted one of the last of the big ones."

Automobiles thereafter, in fact, did become smaller, more compact and more energy efficient, and will continue to do so, Ganss told educators Monday at the North American Council of Automotive Teachers conference at Pennsylvania College of Technology.

His speech, "The Future is Here: Trends in Transportation Technology, Energy, and the Environment," covered how automobiles have evolved, how laws and mandates affect manufacturing, how climate change and oil dependency impact the industry, and what the future may bring in terms of fuel alternatives and advanced automotive technologies.

Ganss is a technology adviser specializing in advanced vehicle propulsion technologies in the transportation and climate division of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Transportation and Air Quality.

A big part of his job involves trying to understand how technologies affect the automotive industry, he said, noting he worked on advanced powertrains at Chrysler for 12 years before joining the agency.

Ganss told the educators they also must keep up on technological changes and advancements to serve their students and train them to be well-educated and skillful automotive technicians.

"Tomorrow's automotive technicians will need to be highly skilled to be effective," Ganss said, saying consumers soon will be faced with "a bewildering array" of new automotive and fuel options.

"The future's exciting and it's much closer than we may think," he said.

The industry has made significant advancements since the 1970s, Ganss said.

For example, in 1975, the average automobile got 13 miles per gallon and weighed about 4,060 pounds, he said. An average 2006 model, he said, got 20.2 miles per gallon and weighed 4,034 pounds with double the horsepower.

"This is some pretty compelling data," Ganss said.

Now the industry faces the "twin challenges" of climate change and oil dependency, he said.

Temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are rising, and the atmosphere can hold carbon dioxide for 50 to 200 years, Ganss said. Since the 1980s, oil discoveries have dropped while production has increased, and the Energy Information Administration predicts peak oil production could occur between 2026 and 2047. Other experts have said it already peaked at Thanksgiving of 2005.

"There isn't a single solution," Ganss said, calling a variety of actions from everyday people to large companies and government.

Solutions can be as simple as carpooling, becoming more pedestrian and bicyclist friendly, adding public transportation opportunities and implementing compressed work weeks, Ganss said, all of which will reduce the number of vehicles on roadways and carbon dioxide emissions. Drivers would save, too, on fuel costs as the price of gasoline rises.

Renewable fuels, Ganss said, such as ethanol, E-85, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel and even biodiesel made from algae, will be the fuels of the future. The Energy Independence and Security Act, Ganss said, mandates a minimum 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel in production by 2022.

"The stuff fuel is made of is vitally important," Ganss said.

The demand for fuel also could be reduced as the industry develops electric-powered cars and hybrids, Ganss said.

With advancements in the convergence of gas and diesel technology, he said consumers will have more "lean burn gasoline engines" from which to choose. Those may include homogeneous charge compression ignition engines and internal combustion engines.

Even redesigns to transmissions, power steering and air conditioners will lead to more environmentally friendly cars in the future, Ganss said.

"It's pretty amazing, some of the stuff they are looking at," Ganss said. "I don't think there's any part of the vehicle that won't be touched."

Ganss told the educators that their role is to stay abreast of the latest trends and technologies so they can train "more flexible and better influenced" automotive technicians.

 
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