Local Iran native: Country doesn’t need full-scale revolution

Dr. Mehrdad Madresehee doesn't know what will happen as a result of the current political turmoil in his native Iran, but he does know that a full-scale political revolution is not the answer.

"I've gone through (a revolution) ... and we don't need that," he said. "We don't need a civil war."

Madresehee, a professor of economics and director of the Institute for Management Studies at Lycoming College, predicts that if an all-out revolution to oust the country's Islamic republic takes place, it will lead to much more violence than was seen during the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution, which removed the monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi from power.

"If there is a revolution, it's going to be uglier, it's going to be bloodier," he said. "Under the Shah's system, there were not a lot of hardcore believers. This system has a lot of hardcore believers because of the religious aspect."

However, Madresehee, who came to the United States just before the outbreak of the 1979 revolution, said the current political unrest in Iran is not about overthrowing the current government, but is about wanting the regime to fairly interpret the results of the country's June 12 presidential election.

Immediately following the election, the Iranian government declared incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner in a landslide victory over opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

All of the presidential candidates were screened by the nation's religiously based Guardian Council and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to ensure they were "kosher" and will "protect the nature of the republic," according to Madresehee. Therefore, the protestors, who believe Mousavi rightfully won the election, are angry their decision was not honored.

"This protest is about people asking, 'Why don't you respect the choices you made for us?'" he said. "All candidates were screened by the supreme leader, so it's not like they want to pick out a leftist candidate or something."

Under Iran's political system, the president's job is to "run the country" on a day-to-day basis, Madresehee said, but all of the nation's major decisions are made by the supreme leader, who is appointed by a group of 80 high-ranking Islamic clergymen.

While Ahmadinejad is unpopular internationally, Madresehee, who visits Iran "periodically," said many inside Iran remain positive about his job performance.

"A lot of people still believe he is doing what the supreme leader wants to do," he said.

If Mousavi were elected, Iranian leaders may fear he would try to challenge Khamenei, under whom he served as prime minister in the 1980s.

"They may think that if he gets elected, he might try to push his own agenda," Madresehee said. "But his name was put in the hat by the (Guardian) Council. Maybe they thought he wasn't going to be elected or he couldn't get enough people together to oust Ahmadinejad."

Madresehee praised President Barack Obama's handling of the situation, saying that an intervention in the situation by the United States would "backfire" and give legitimacy to the ruling power in Iran.

"President Obama is doing a great job with this," he said. "This is a totally internal issue."

Madresehee said even he doesn't have the right to get involved in his native country's affairs.

"Even people like me, sitting in a different country like this, shouldn't tell the Iranians what to do," he said. "I'm concerned ... but I can't just tell them what they should do."

However, Madresehee said he does feel strongly that people should be able to express their opinions in a peaceful manner.

"I feel sorry for the young people (of Iran) who can't have their voices heard," he said. "People should be able to voice their opinions publically ... People have the right to know what's going on."

For now, Madresehee said he has no idea what will come out of the turmoil gripping Iran.

"Honestly, no one knows what will happen," he said. "Everything is up in the air."