The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Williamsport Metropolitan Statistical Area dropped 0.3 of a percentage point in December to 7.3 percent.
Since December 2010, the unemployment rate has fallen 1.1 percentage points from 8.4 percent. December marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, said Steven Zellers, industry and business analyst for the Center for Workforce Information & Analysis.
"You guys did rather good for a December," Zellers said. "(Employment) usually declines by 100 to 200, based on a five- to 10-year average. You have a lot of stuff that shuts down, a lot of seasonal, mining and logging and construction, simply because in wintertime, they can't get it done."
With the weather being so mild this winter, Zellers said he thinks that is why unemployment went down.
Based on years past, December usually is a good month for a lower unemployment rate because of the retail jobs created for the holiday season, like October and November. It is likely January's unemployment rate will increase because of the loss of holiday season workers. Typically January and December are two months of the year that really follow seasonal patterns.
The exception would be if something like a factory opened or a flood happened, which could cause job growth or decline.
The area's unemployment rate dropped more than the state and the nation did, both of which fell 0.9 of a percentage point.
Generally, the state's unemployment rate has been declining, but the Williamsport area has a few reasons for a better unemployment rate, Zellers said. Pennsylvania College of Technology and other major employers are doing well, with stable workforce numbers.
"Of course, you have the impact of the Marcellus Shale," he said. "As far as expectations (for the future of unemployment rates), we're not supposed to venture an opinion, but it's fairly common sense. (The shale formation is) the reason for the good performance in Williamsport over the last several months and there's no reason to see that substantially change in the next coming months. Marcellus Shale is not going away anytime soon. It's the biggest drive right now."
One way to tell the economy is getting better is the lack of volatility in the market.
"Generally, in Pennsylvania, the economy is improving slowly," Zellers said. "The numbers used to be all across the board."
Cities in a metropolitan statistical area could have the unemployment rate go down, while the unemployment rate in other cities in the same area would go up.
"There was volatility in the market," he said. "All those numbers were not making sense. Slowly over the last several months, we're tracking higher (unemployment rates) to lower."
While there is no specific definition of when the direction of the unemployment rate has hit a trend, Zellers said the unemployment rate going in one direction for more than three months, such as Williamsport's rate dropping for four months straight, usually can be considered a trend.
