×

Always dreaming of another big victory

ASSOCIATED PRESS Always Dreaming is the son of 2012 Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister.

Five years ago today, I’m surprised my neighbors didn’t call the cops on me. I probably had earned it after all the times I called the cops on them.

But I was jumping up and down in my living room, screaming bloody murder. Bodemeister had been so close to winning the Kentucky Derby. It was the horse I had pegged as the favorite since the first time I saw him run earlier that year. I loved that he was a Bob Baffert-trained horse. I loved that he had Mike Smith riding him. And I loved that he broke down the stretch with five-length lead.

What I didn’t love was that he finally faltered. There was no way he could keep up his 22-second quarter-mile pace and 45-second half-mile pace. Eventually, Bodemeister had to tire, and he did. He was passed in the final 200 yards by I’ll Have Another, a gutsy 15-1 shot who seemed too good to have such low odds.

There was cursing that night as I stood alone in my living room. A whole lot of cursing. The cats scattered.

I was so mad that I didn’t even realize I had Bodemeister and I’ll Have Another in an exacta bet boxed, meaning it didn’t matter what order they finished in, as long as they each finished in the top two. I was too busy being mad about Bodemeister not winning to realize that I won a significant chunk of money.

I forgave Bodemeister pretty quickly for his loss that day and two weeks later at the Preakness. And now, five years later as we prepare for the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby this evening, Bodemeister remains one of my favorite horses.

I loved how he and Mike Smith put it all on the line, sprinting out early in the most famous horse race in the world and said, ‘We’re running fast, try and catch us.’ In retrospect, I love the gutsy nature in taking that approach, outrunning pace-setter Trinniberg into the first turn and putting everyone in the rear-view mirror.

So when I saw that today’s co-second favorite Always Dreaming was the son of Bodemeister. I couldn’t help but get giddy. Show me something, anything, I thought, that reminds me of your dad, and I promise this is where my money is going when I visit the casino this afternoon.

It took just one watching of the Florida Derby to see a lot of his dad in the way he runs. The dark bay colt is a vision, a gorgeous animal who was dominant in that Florida Derby. He announced his presence with authority that day. And I don’t see how he could be anything but the favorite to win the blanket of roses today.

He has everything you want to see in a horse you pick to win this race. First, he’s talented. Second, he has the lineage as the son of Bodemeister and the grandson of Empire Maker, who was a Belmont Stakes winner and a Kentucky Derby runner-up. Third, jockey John Velazquez won the Derby on a longshot named Animal Kingdom. And finally, trainer Todd Pletcher is one of the most successful, well-known figures in the game.

I hope to see just a little bit of a flash of the greatness I saw five years ago. Of course, it would be even better if Always Dreaming could finish what his dad and grandfather couldn’t. It might save me from a meeting with the police.

Here’s a closer look at today’s Kentucky Derby:

FAVORITE TO WIN

Always Dreaming, 5-1

I worry about the lack of graded stakes races this horse has run, along with his temperament. But dadgum, just watch his run in the in the Florida Derby just one time — just once — and it’s so easy to see why this is my favorite horse in the field. Regardless of his relation to Bodemeister, this is just a really good horse, and he’s the only one, on first glance, that I was sold on being able to win the Kentucky Derby. He’s the one who my money will be on this evening, and not gonna lie, I could use the cash. So hook a dude up, Always Dreaming.

FAVORITE TO BE WARY OF

Classic Empire, 4-1

KentuckyDerby.com has videos posted of four Classic Empire races, and I watched them all at least twice. I thought I had to be missing something because this is the morning-line favorite at 4-1 and when I watch him run, I just don’t see the makings of a special horse. Not to mention, the favorite has won this race each of the last four years. You have to go back to 2012 and I’ll Have Another to find a Kentucky Derby winner who wasn’t the morning-line favorite. He went two months between running in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Holy Bull Stakes, and then two more between the Holy Bull and the Arkansas Derby, both times because of injury. To me, the horse is underwhelming, and the lack of training time doesn’t make me feel to easy about the underwhelming nature of his runs. Except for his close in the Arkansas Derby. That was wicked impressive, and makes me wonder if I’m making a huge mistake by pretty much disregarding him.

LONGSHOT TO KEEP IN MIND

Lookin at Lee, 20-1

The very first thought which passed through my mind when I watch his Arkansas Derby run was that he ran the race just like Orb ran the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Lookin at Lee is a late runner, which is exactly how Orb won the 2013 Derby. He came from 17th on the final turn on a sloppy track to win running away. And if you look at the weather for this evening in Louisville, it’s going to be pretty sloppy with rain. Lookin at Lee also appears to be a horse who is going to get stronger the longer the race because of his ability to kick and hold that kick over distance. Lookin at Lee also comes from good stock. His sire is Lookin at Lucky, winner of the 2010 Preakness, and his Dam is a Breeders Cup Oaks winner. The caveat is most late runners like a fast early pace to overcome a tiring field, and this race doesn’t appear to have that kind of pace in it.

OTHERS WITH TOP 3 POTENTIAL

Girvin, 15-1

This is going to be a race of great value with plenty of money to be made because only four horses have single-digit morning-line odds. And as such, horses like Girvin are going to play a role in making you, as a handicapper, a good chunk of money. Girvin is one of those at 15-1. He has the Road to the Derby results you’d like to see winning the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star Stakes. If this is a race in which there isn’t going to be a lot of early pace, Girvin could shine. His jockey, Mike Smith, is one of the most decorated jockeys in the history of horse racing and knows Churchill Downs like I know my way around a buffet. Nothing about Girvin screams exceptional, but being a solid horse close to the rail might just be enough to make him a factor.

Gunnevera, 15-1

Don’t be scared by his third-place finish at the Florida Derby. He had a terrible start and spent much of the front stretch running to the rail from the outside post. He finished with great strength and strides and was good enough to take third. Not bad for what folks would likely call a bad trip. Again, he’s another horse who is likely going to benefit from a moderate pace. But there has to be concerns about his penchant for slow starts. You can overcome slow starts in a 10-horse field. In a field of 20 elite horses like he’ll see today, a slow start can be catastrophic.

Tapwrit, 20-1

His run down the stretch in the Tampa Bay Derby had me giddy. His run in the Blue Grass Stakes had me scratching my head. The good news is the Tampa Bay Derby was Tapwrit’s most recent race, so I’m going to put more stock into that one. With a young jockey on board like Jose Ortiz, I’m guessing he’s more likely to take a chance on a big move. And coming out of the 16th post should give Tapwrit a clean break. There’s great value on this horse to maybe pack into your exotic wagers.

SLEEPER PICK TO WIN

Gormley, 15-1

What stuck out to me the most was he broke out quickly in the Santa Anita Derby to run a 23-second opening quarter mile and still had strength coming down the final 1/8 of a mile. What I also love about this horse is jockey Victor Espinoza has plenty of success. You might remember him from such Kentucky Derby winning rides as California Chrome and American Pharoah. You remember American Pharoah, right, the horse that won the Triple Crown just two years ago? His history is checkered with a pair of big wins, and a pair of bad results in some big races. Not to mention he’s the brother of Derby-winning Orb and the grandson of A.P. Indy who was a Belmont winner and the son of Seattle Slew.

My picks for the top four:

1. Always Dreaming; 2. Lookin at Lee; 3. Irish War Cry; 4. Gormley.

Mitch Rupert can be reached at 326-1551, ext. 3129, or by email at mrupert@sungazette.com. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/Mitch_Rupert.

NEWSLETTER

Today's breaking news and more in your inbox

I'm interested in (please check all that apply)
Are you a paying subscriber to the newspaper? *
   

COMMENTS

[vivafbcomment]

Starting at $4.62/week.

Subscribe Today