As ‘Force Awakens’ winds down, ‘Avatar’ remains supreme
NEW YORK – Two months after opening to unprecedented fanfare, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” is finally winding down in theaters, leaving behind arsenals of plastic lightsabers and a trail of box-office records.
“The Force Awakens” still is playing in more than 2,000 theaters in North America and remains ranked in the top-five at the box office as it enters its ninth week of release. But the lion’s share of its theatrical revenue has been pocketed, and one thing is abundantly clear: it’s not going to touch “Avatar.”
Regardless of further receipts, “The Force Awakens” (currently with $2.008 billion worldwide) will slot in at No. 2 all-time on the global box office list, if you don’t account for inflation or rereleases. That’s slightly ahead of James Cameron’s “Titanic” ($1.84 billion before a later 3-D release pushed it to $2.18 billion) but light years behind “Avatar” ($2.79 billion).
“The Force Awakens” was by any measure a massive hit: a full-blown, if prepackaged, cultural phenomenon that drove moviegoers en masse to theaters in a way that some thought was no longer possible in an increasingly multi-screen media world. It already has made the Walt Disney Co. heaps of cash and it has set the franchise up to reap oodles more in merchandising, theme park attractions and sequels.
But even the most colossal hit of the decade – one with all the firepower of arguably the movies’ biggest franchise – was no match for Cameron’s 2009 3-D sensation. Though some forecast “The Force Awakens” to rival “Avatar” and possibly become the first $3 billion movie, that mark has never seemed more out of reach.
” ‘Avatar’ is sitting on top of that global mountain, looking down and saying, ‘Just try to catch me,'” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for comScore. “That’s a record that’s going to stand for a long time. And we know it now more than ever.”
Though “The Force Awakens” set a record in North America ($906.7 million and counting), it was less of a phenomenon in some overseas territories, most notably in China, where “Star Wars” doesn’t have the same history with moviegoers. Had “The Force Awakens” performed at the same rate internationally as it did in the U.S., it would have toppled “Avatar.”
Currency devaluation in some countries between 2009 and 2106 also help account for the distance between “The Force Awakens” and “Avatar,” perhaps as much as hundreds of millions.
It’s just one more example of how box office rankings don’t take into account countless variables (inflation, ticket prices, media competition) that affect every release. Adjust for inflation and the record domestic haul of “The Force Awakens,” is dwarfed by 1939’s “Gone With the Wind,” which made approximately $1.7 billion in North America in inflation-adjusted dollars. Each era has its own mega blockbusters.
“We’re taking a little more time just to appreciate the run and the response without paying too much attention to ranking and ratings,” said Dave Hollis, head of distribution for Disney. “There’s still business to be had in this run and possibly if we decide to do a reissue of this film now or ahead of Episode VIII, or whatever it might be.”
Regardless, the $4 billion investment Disney made when it purchased LucasFilm already is looking like a bargain, and the mammoth success of “The Force Awakens” in movie theaters is only part of it.
Analysts expect merchandizing revenues from “Star Wars” to bring in some $5 billion for Disney in 2015 and 2016. “Star Wars” also is driving more visitors to Disney’s theme parks. Ground soon will be broken on a 14-acre “Star Wars” area in Disneyland.
Most importantly, director J.J. Abrams reinvigorated the franchise with a crowd-pleasing, critically praised reboot that pulled in new fans and put in motion a profit-creating system of galactic proportions.
“It started with a fantastic film that absolutely delivered,” said Hollis. “For what it meant not just off of some big opening weekends but for the playability over the last couple of months and really for what it means in setting up the franchise for the future, everyone couldn’t be any happier.”
Propelled by “Star Wars,” Disney reported a record $2.88 billion in quarterly revenue on Tuesday, a 32 percent jump from the same period a year earlier. The ripple effect of “The Force Awakens” has only just begun.
Anthony DiClemente, an analyst for Nomura, was among those who once forecast a possible $3 billion in ticket sales. But he says the result for “The Force Awakens,” even if it fell short of the most bullish predictions, exceeded Disney’s internal expectations.
“The thing about Disney is they have a content monetization engine where they can monetize one piece of content more effectively than any other company,” says DiClemente, citing the company’s television networks and parks. “It is something that ripples throughout the company.”
In the end, “Star Wars” may be passing “Avatar” in other ways. Disney recently moved the release date for “Star Wars: Episode VIII” to December 2017, right up against a date 20th Century Fox had staked out for Cameron’s long-awaited, repeatedly delayed “Avatar 2.” The “Avatar” sequel has since been removed from Fox’s schedule.