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By mid-September, 2018 already is among the top 10 rainiest years Lycoming County has seen since such record-keeping began in 1895, said Michael Colbert, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in State College.
As of Thursday, nine out of 13 days in September saw at least a trace of rain, he said. Year to date, Williamsport has tallied 50.42 inches, only about 20 inches less than the record high of 70.26 inches that fell in 2011.
"Even if it didn't rain another drop from now through the end of the year, we'd be No. 7 on the list of records," Colbert said.
The month of May was the third wettest May on record, with 7.69 inches of rain over the course of 17 days that had a trace of rain, meaning raindrops fell but may not have been measurable, Colbert said. The record high for May precipitation was 9.91 inches in 1919, while the record low was 0.8 in 1964.
August also is the third wettest on record, with 9.29 inches recorded over 19 days with even a trace of rain, he said. The record for that month is 9.65 inches in 1912 while the record low is 0.53 in 1930.
July took the No. 1 spot with 11.99 inches recorded. The previous record was 9.65 inches in 1992, nearly 2 inches less than this year's record, "which is significant, for just a month," said Craig Evanego, also a National Weather Service meteorologist.
September isn't necessarily on its way to breaking records, but it has been much wetter than normal.
As of midnight on Thursday, 5.18 inches of precipitation had been recorded at the Williamsport Regional Airport in Montoursville. Average rainfall for the month is nearly 2 inches less than that, about 3.58 inches, Evanego said.
Lycoming County isn't an outlier, either -- Sunbury, with 4.13 inches, Lock Haven with 6.1 inches, Lewisburg with 4.73 inches and Dushore with 6.11 inches, all are nearing or have surpassed average levels as well, he said.
"Most of these are already over the monthly normal -- in some cases by a couple of inches -- and it's not even half over yet," he said.
The record precipitation for September is 15.97 inches, seen in 2011 when Lycoming County experienced the effects of tropical storm Lee, Colbert said.
The most recent rainfall saw the West Branch of the Susquehanna River rise to flood levels, reaching action stage of 10 feet around 5:30 p.m. on Monday and doubling in depth over the next 24 hours before peaking at 21.08 feet around 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
The top three highest crests on record exceeded 30 feet -- at 32.4 feet in 1889, 33.6 feet in 1936 and at 34.8 feet in 1972.
Other crests of note recorded by the National Weather Service were at 20.3 feet in 2011, 23.3 feet in 2010 and 27.8 in 2004.
The National Weather Service's short-range ensemble forecast simulations indicate the river level should fall below action-level, or 10 feet, by Monday evening. What happens next will depend on the path Hurricane Florence takes.
Hurricane Florence made landfall along the North Carolina coast on Friday, pushing a life-threatening storm surge of floodwater miles inland and ripping apart buildings with screaming wind and pelting rain.
The slow-moving storm is expected to continue to release heavy rains over North Carolina today. By Sunday morning, it is expected to weaken to a depression while over South Carolina before turning northward, Colbert said.
Pennsylvania is expected to see an impact later Monday and on Tuesday.
"Right now, I think the heaviest rain is to fall on Tuesday," Colbert said. "It's possible it could come in ahead of schedule on Monday."
The area is looking at about 2 to 4 inches, "but that's highly dependent on the track of those remnants," he said.
If what remains of Florence veers left toward Ohio, Pennsylvania will receive less rain; if it stays on track to fall over Pennsylvania, Lycoming County could receive "quite a bit more," he said.
Wind gusts could reach between 30 mph and 40 mph, which could be "low-end damaging," Colbert said.
"With the saturated soil, we're at an increased risk of toppling trees," he said.
Flash flooding will depend on how quickly the rain falls, he added.
True to the expression, "the calm before the storm," the Williamsport area can expect to see sunny skies and "comfortable" temperatures today and Sunday, with highs in the mid- to upper 70s and low humidity, he said.
"We'll see a little bit of relief for the weekend," Colbert said.