Rural population decline continues to stress industry

Several factors can help grow the rural workforce economy, but they will not happen overnight.

During a state Senate hearing at the Pennsylvania College of Technology, population loss was considered a key barrier to adding numbers to the labor force.

Kyle C. Kopko, executive director of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, a bipartisan, legislative research agency of the General Assembly, noted how population trends over time have resulted in what is referred to as the "bifurcation of Pennsylvania" -- that is, population shifts to the southeastern part of the state.

Stagnation of the state's rural population, primarily due to more deaths than births and the "graying" of the state, where an increasingly larger share of its population will be 65 years of age or older, also has occurred.

Meanwhile, adding to a steady decline in the rural labor force, predates the COVID-19 pandemic. Eight counties outside the southeast region experienced population increases: Allegheny, Butler, Centre, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Snyder, Pike and Washington.

On average, urban Pennsylvania counties have experienced steady population growth over the last 100 years. The population in rural counties, however, has largely remained stagnant over the last 30 years.

In fact, the rural population decreased by about 85,000 residents between 2010 and 2020, Kopko said.

Such population stagnation or decline in the rural residents is not new or unique to Pennsylvania, he said.

Nearly two-thirds of all rural counties across the United States experienced no population growth in the last decade.

"Indeed, this is a long-term trend that is not the result of any single policy or administration, either at the state or federal level," Kopko added.

In fact, based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates, rural Pennsylvania has experienced positive net migration following the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This is certainly positive news for our rural communities," Kopko said. However, the rural population continues to decline in Pennsylvania because, on average, deaths continue to outpace births. Since 2008, deaths have consistently outpaced births in rural counties.

Based on the statistical projections, there will be more senior citizens in rural Pennsylvania than individuals under 20 years of age by 2030. However, this is not strictly a rural phenomenon. Estimates suggest that by 2030, 47 of Pennsylvania's 67 counties will have more senior citizens than individuals under age 20.

Meanwhile, throughout Pennsylvania, changes in the labor force have not been uniform, Kopko observed.

From January 2012 to December 2022, the labor force in Pennsylvania's urban areas increased by about 250,000 people.

But during this same time in rural areas, the labor force decreased by approximately 210,000 people.

Later this year, the Center for Rural Pennsylvania will publish updated population estimates for each county in Pennsylvania through the year 2050. Every member of the General Assembly will receive a copy of this report once it is complete.