The population in the county has been in a gradual decline since 2000 and that is expected to continue through 2050, according to findings in the long-range transportation plan presented at this week’s Lycoming County commissioners’ meeting by Austin Daily, county transportation planner.

“This is based on individual projections of all 52 municipalities in the county and the trend that we’re seeing in each of those,” Daily said.

For the plan, the tax assessment database was used to track where new residential and commercial structures are being built and that information was used to project what areas are growing the fastest and which ones are growing the slowest or decreasing the fastest, he explained.

He pointed out that certain areas of the county — Muncy Creek, Wolf and Loyalsock townships — are growing, and growing faster than other regions.

The demographic trends in the county show a growing older population.

“We’re rapidly aging. In 10 years we’ve gained thousands of people aged 60 through 79 that are not just aging into those groups,” he said.

“It’s not like those people have gotten older. We’re actively gaining an additional elderly population. As a whole, Lycoming County has a greater percentage of senior citizens and a lower percentage of under 18 (years of age) than both in the state of Pennsylvania and nationwide,” he added.

The population will shrink, Daily said, when the county reaches a demographic cliff where the population gets older because of the lower replacement rates through new child births.

Another population trend that the plan detected was a widespread undercount in municipalities across the state that had a college campus specifically in 2020 when the census was done.

“The hypothesis here is that during COVID people were working from home and students were not actually in the municipalities where their college campus was,” Daily said.

Williamsport has two colleges and comparing it with other college towns in the region, there was a similar trend.

Another projection made in the plan is that if Williamsport’s population stabilizes and stays flat, the overall county population would actually increase over the next 30 years because the areas which are experiencing growth would offset the loss in the more rural areas.

Lycoming County is a rural agricultural county and a large portion of the county is zoned to be that way, Daily noted. The number of farms have decreased while the overall farm acres have increased.

Sectors where there has been growth from 2010 to 2020 was in transportation and warehousing, which Daily said could be attributed to the county’s strategic location along Interstate 180 and Route 15.

Accommodation, food services, health care and social assistance have also seen growth which would be common, he said, because Lycoming County as a whole and Williamsport as the largest municipality north of I-80.

“In this region of the state, you have to go all the way over to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and out west to Erie and Pittsburgh north of I-80. We’re sort of a hub for those. We are also the gateway for PA Wilds,” he said.

There are extensive state lands in the county as well as a number of waterways that are heavily utilized for outdoor recreation or as agricultural resources.

Williamsport is near 50 million people within a 250-mile radius and is known for hosting the Little League World Series.

“With the completion of CSVT (Central Susquehanna Valley Transportation Project) and the Bellefonte interchange on I-80, we will have I-99 designation on Route15, so we will basically be at the pinnacle of where two major interstate systems throughout both Pennsylvania and the northeast is located,” Daily said.

Other highlights from the plan show that the state routes in the county are in fair condition. With the decrease in population there are fewer people driving.

State and locally-owned bridges are generally in an excellent state of repair and the commissioners have been actively dealing with the number of locally owned bridges in poor condition. This ensures that citizens, particularly the senior population, can travel throughout the county to get to the services they need.

Unfortunately with an aging population comes an increase in crashes involving senior citizens, compared to other demographics.

The availability of the Riverwalk and bikeways and creating connectivity with these is a resource for people looking for outdoor recreation.

In recapping the findings in the plan, Daily said, “really the difference comes down to whether or not people are moving to Lycoming County.”

“We need people to continue seeing Lycoming County as an attractive place to work but also we need to be able to retain young people here,” he said.

The plan, which is re-done every five years and covers 2023-45, can be accessed at https://www.lyco.org/WATS-MPO/LRTP. Public comments will be considered after Nov. 13 and adoption is expected on Dec. 4.