Trending
As of 2020, the State of Pennsylvania had 4,092,693 registered Democratic voters (47.6% of the total registered voters in the state), 3,290,944 registered Republican voters (38.3% of the total), and 1,215,657 registered other party voters (14.1% of the total). Disregarding the other party voters for the moment, Democrats would comprise 55.4% of the combined total of the two major parties, and Republicans would comprise 44.6% of this combined total.
Pennsylvania has 17 U.S. Representatives from 17 congressional districts. From a purely statistical standpoint, one would surmise that 9.4 (17 x 55.4%) of those 17 representatives should be Democrats and 7.6 (17 X 44.6%) should be Republican. Since we can't deal with a fraction of a representative, we will settle on 9 Democrats and 8 Republicans. How can the 17 congressional districts be set up so that there is an equal chance for this 9/8 split to occur, but no guarantee that it will happen - a fair and just arrangement?
First of all, it would appear fair and just that each of these 17 districts should be "gerrymandered" so that no more than about 52% of the voters are from one of the two major parties and no less than about 48% of the voters are from the other major party, with 9 of these districts having a Democratic majority and 8 having a Republican majority. With such a narrow percentage difference, the candidate from either party would have a reasonable chance of winning in each district, especially considering that a small percentage (e.g. 4%) of the voters in each district would probably be registered in one of the other parties (i.e. neither Democrat nor Republican). A very good candidate would have a good chance of winning, even if that candidate were from the minority party for that district, and a poor candidate would stand a good chance of losing, even if that candidate were from the majority party for that district.
However, it is almost certain that the 52%/48% margin would have to be at least slightly altered for some districts in order to prevent gerrymandering to the point that those districts lack any geographic cohesion. But each percentage margin should be altered no more than necessary; and for every district that must be altered far beyond this 52%/48% margin in favor of one party, there should be an off-setting district which is altered far beyond this margin in favor of the opposite party, while maintaining the 52%/48% margin in as many districts as possible, with the Democrats ending up with one and only one more 52% majority district than the Republicans.
Whatever gerrymandering is necessary to achieve the 17 districts as detailed above, would be a fair and just bipartisan gerrymandering and not a partisan gerrymandering having the intent of producing an unwarranted and unfair advantage for one party over the other.
JOHN SILVERSTRIM
South Williamsport
Submitted by email