What makes the devotion of farmers to Trump so remarkable is that even though Trump’s first term tariffs on imported goods devastated farmers financially nationwide, the margin of victory among American farmers in 2024 was higher than it was in 2016. China retaliated to Trump’s tariffs with tariffs of its own on American products including soybeans, pork, corn, wheat, and dairy. Foreign buyers bought agricultural products elsewhere. Soybean sales alone dropped by $3B in 2017. Many farmers experienced inadequate profit margins. Many others fell heavily into debt. And now that he is promising another round of tariffs that will deliver a financial hit to farmers, the question is, “Will farmers continue to stand by their man?”

According to the non-partisan Center for Rural Studies, 69 percent of people in the nation’s deeply rural areas voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Before the election, during my leisurely drives throughout the farm areas of this region, Trump/Vance signs were all over the place. I can’t remember seeing a single Harris/Walz sign the whole time. Reports from rural areas all over the country told the same story. It’s not hard to understand why. America’s farmers produce food at prices lower than those paid by people in most industrial nations. And what do farmers feel they get in return? Condescension from much of the rest of the nation… except from Donald Trump.

Many farmers feel they are looked down on by the elite. By established politicians, who, they think, do not prioritize the concerns of working-class citizens. By mainstream journalists and media personalities whose reports reflect little understanding of rural lives and experiences. By multi-national corporate leaders who enrich themselves abroad and leave local economies across the nation in the lurch. Trump appeals to farmers by talking constantly about rural America’s economic struggles and cultural values. At the same time, he positions himself against the elites whom he describes as disconnected from the looked-down-on flyovers of our land. Farmers believe Trump feels their pain and is dedicated to addressing their concerns by pledging to end the system that marginalizes them. So, it is easy to see why farmers love Donald Trump.

Farmers who often criticized the government for giving out free stuff had to rely on government aid of about $25B as partial compensation for the losses caused by Trump’s tariffs. If the more sweeping tariffs of Trump’s second term go into effect, there is little reason to believe farmers will not suffer another major blow to the wallet, only far worse this time around.

First, there would be the effect of mass deportations on farm owners. Undocumented immigrants make up a large share of the agricultural workforce and other food-chain industries like meat packing. According to the non-partisan Petersen Institute, labor costs related to food production would go up, raising the prices of food we sell both at home and abroad. American farmers would become less competitive and American food exports would be cut in half by 2028.

Donald Trump pledges he will keep the forces of demographic and cultural change rural Americans fear from disturbing the way things have always been down on the farm. At the same time, he is promising to do things that are going to make it tough to survive there. All this raises some questions: if Donald Trump keeps his word, will unhurried drives through the countryside in 2027 still feel like like a Disney ride through Trump Rally Land? Will farmers continue to pledge their love and loyalty to Donald J. Trump? Or is this just another story of unrequited love?

Tim Mannello is a retired hospital system executive and business consultant.