Let’s try to understand what President Trump’s new tariffs are, what they mean, who will pay for them. Also their impact on the American economy, on individual U.S. citizens, and America’s relations with the rest of the world.

Tariffs used to be called “import duties.” They are paid, not by the nation that exports, but by the nation that imports. They are a tax, now between 10 and 60%, that American companies, large and small, must pay whenever they buy something from abroad.

A great many American companies, we know from reading the labels, have their products manufactured abroad. No one forces them to do this. China and Bangladesh didn’t “steal” anything. American companies find that labor costs are cheaper abroad. Container shipping has made transportation across oceans cheap. It’s simple business logic.

American clothes used to be made in a 20-block area of Manhattan called the Garment District. The clothing industry there was mostly unionized, and manufacturers had to pay union wages. Then, manufacturers discovered they could have their garments made in Thailand or Vietnam, pay much less for labor, and ship stuff cheaply. They contracted with factories abroad to make clothes to be sold under American labels. Thailand and Vietnam “stole” nothing. It was the American companies who made the choice (think Woolrich). The same with televisions, seafood, shoes, refrigerators.

The factories in the U.S. were closed decades ago. It isn’t as if the jobs are there, waiting for Americans to start making food processers and sneakers. The cost to build and equip new plants would be enormous, and their products would be prohibitively expensive.

When an American company that imports goods, even parts for products they make at home, has to pay tariffs, they have no choice but to pass that cost on to their customers. American companies that sell clothing, appliances, auto parts, smartphones, food from abroad–all of these will now have to raise their prices. Then, what choice will consumers have? Either we pay more, or we buy less. Paying more means inflation. Buying less, since the biggest driver of our economy is consumer spending, means recession.

Also, trade goes both ways. When we raise tariffs on goods other countries have been exporting to us, they do will the same with things we have been exporting to them. America has been selling about $3 trillion of goods abroad annually, 10% percent of our GDP. We sell agricultural products, machinery, aircraft equipment (think Avco Lycoming) and much more. A lot of these things the Chinese can also make, and they have already announced plans to increase their trade with the European Union. When our exports diminish, so will American jobs.

No one can predict for sure what all the consequences of the Trump tariffs will be, but it is clear that they cannot possibly be good for America’s economy. They may actually create an advantage for the countries with which we compete. We won’t suddenly have a new golden age of “Made in America.” Prices will go up, jobs will be lost, and our nation’s standing in the world will be damaged.

Arno Vosk is a medical doctor living in Williamsport.