The Strait of Hormuz and the long chessboard
The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is often framed as a regional military confrontation involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. In reality, it is far larger: it is a systemic challenge to the global economy, to international maritime law, and to the domestic political stability of major powers. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil moves through this narrow waterway. Any sustained disruption therefore becomes not merely a military event but a global economic shock. The immediate effects of such a disruption are well understood. Oil prices rise sharply, ...