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Nicolas Severini on baseball: Crosscutters’ pitching stats don’t tell full story, as success continues

Starting pitcher Gavin Perry of the Crosscutters throws in the first inning against Mahoning Valley at Journey Bank Ballpark on Thursday. DAVE KENNEDY/Sun-Gazette

Stats can be very deceiving.

Especially in baseball, where a majority of the game and its backdrop can be analyzed on data and analytics that look more like excel spreadsheets than the result of the game. Since the ‘Moneyball’ boom of the early aughts, many in charge of America’s pastime rely on these statistics to guide ball clubs in the present and beyond.

But stats, even if they don’t lie, can still be deceiving.

Take the Williamsport Crosscutters, who go into the weekend, according to the stats, having the worst pitching in the MLB Draft League. Going into Sunday night’s slate of games, the Cutters are ranked second to last last in ERA (5.62) while giving up 104 total runs, a league worst.

And yet, not only has Williamsport survived, it’s thrived in the campaign so far. After the weekend’s slate of games, the Cutters will be first in the MLB Draft League, stretching their lead up top by two-and-a-half games heading into Sunday.

The top of the rotation features a domineering punch in the tandem of Zachary Murray, Rodney Shultz and Gavin Perry. The three-headed monster has separated itself from the pack, consistently pulling out wins and carrying Billtown up the standings. And while the entire pitching staff has been a positive, the starting shift has shined as of late.

All three were slated to start in a row in what was the most consequential series of the season, with Williamsport, at the time, level with Mahoning Valley at the top of the Draft League standings.

What followed were three absolute, domineering pitching performances that sent the Cutters into the stratosphere.

Gavin Perry got the nod on Thursday, tasked with helping snap a streak where Billtown had lost three of their last four. Coming into the fixture with a sub-two ERA, Perry would lower those lofty standards in a six inning shift that allowed just one run and featured four strikeouts. The Cutters would take an early 6-0 lead in the series opener and would hold on late for an 8-3 final.

Friday’s match was tabbed as a pitcher’s duel, with Mahoning Valley’s 6’11” ace Peyton Olejnik going up against Williamsport’s canny Zachary Murray. In a game in which only weather could stop the two, Murray’s five innings of clean three hit ball that saw six strikeouts marked one of the best pitching performances of the season. While Murray couldn’t see the sixth due to an hour-long rain delay, he set the platform in what was a dramatic 1-0 Cutters victory.

Looking for the series win in this four game set, it would be Rodney Shultz setting out to start. In what was another brilliant pitching performance, Shultz would also pitch a shutout that spanned five and a third innings, conceding just one hit and striking out seven. The game also benefited the Cutters, who came behind to win 4-3 and clinch the series. In a four game set that started with Williamsport tied for first in the Draft League, the Cutters go into Sunday up two and a half games, their largest lead at the top of the standings this season.

When looking back at the series, it would be the starting pitching that played a massive factor, Across the first three games, Williamsport starters threw a combined 16 and a third innings without giving up a single run, striking out 17 in the process in what was the most dominating stretch of pitching the league has seen this season.

Not bad for a staff allegedly tabbed as the worst in the league.

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