Faced with a growing number of cases of COVID-19, pushing Lycoming County into the substantial transmission phase, area school districts are having to address potential situations if confirmed cases increase in their student populations.

Last week, an increase in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, coupled with the number of students needing to quarantine because of coming into contact with someone who had the disease, caused the South Williamsport Area School District to put their high school students in remote learning until after the Thanksgiving break.

Other area districts are thinking through contingency plans if cases increase in their schools.

At the Muncy School Board meeting Monday night, Dr. Craig Skaluba, superintendent, shared information from a conference call earlier that day with area superintendents and representatives of the state’s Department of Education.

Skaluba said state officials shared their two metrics for transmission reclassification during the call — one is based off the incident rate, or number of positive cases per 100,000 people, while the other is the positivity rate, or number of people who tested positive out of the total number of people tested.

“The incident rate for Lycoming County from last week they rounded, so it was 158. That’s over the hundred threshold. Therefore that’s what put Lycoming County from moderate transmission to substantial transmission,” he said.

In terms of positivity rate, the county was at 8.4 percent, which is less than the 10 percent and changed the classification. Skaluba pointed out that it is an either-or situation for determining reclassification.

He noted that the state has other metrics which determine whether the increase is due to an outbreak, which can be traced back to a specific event or individual, or if it is related to community spread.

Metrics reported for Lycoming County indicate 22 percent of positive cases were caused by an outbreak and 78 percent were caused by community spread.

The statistics were further broken down by age, Skaluba said, with 20 percent for those over 65; 23 percent for the 50 to 64 age group; 33 percent for those 25 to 49; 15 percent are 19 to 24; and 9 percent are between 10 and 18 years of age. No data is kept for children under 10.

He noted that the departments of health and education are recommending that districts at this point maintain the status quo.

“They said next week if we maintain substantial, their recommendation would be to be remote regardless of the current instructional model,” Skaluba said.

One thing that came out of the conference call was that other superintendents seem to be relying on building-specific metrics moving forward rather than on metrics in the county.

Skaluba pointed out that when the state officials were questioned, if there was a threshold at which the state would intervene and either put restrictions on or shut down schools, the response was different than it has been in the past.

“The response that we got and it’s really a different response that we haven’t seen so far, was that they wouldn’t rule anything out and conditions are changing and everything is being considered,” he said.

As of yesterday, 59 counties in the state were considered to have substantial levels of transmission of the coronavirus which means districts in those counties are asked to consider moving to remote learning, according to the department of health. On the other hand, the department said they have no plans to close schools, leaving the decisions in the hands of the local districts’ administrations.

At Monday’s board meeting, Muncy revised their health and safety plan to include specific numbers of confirmed and probable cases of the virus that would trigger a move to remote learning on a building-specific basis.

Gerald McLaughlin, superintendent at Loyalsock Township School District, acknowledged the uptick in cases in the county. He too mentioned the ongoing conversations local superintendents have with each other and also with the local intermediate unit.

“I think the biggest thing is, we’re all monitoring it. Certainly if one building is affected, I’m going to say, hard hit like South was, we’re going to certainly take action if we have to,” McLaughlin said.

He admitted that although Loyalsock has not had a surge in cases, they have had isolated cases in buildings.

“I don’t think, that to-date this year we’ve had any in the middle school. Just one in the elementary school and several in the high school,” he said.

“We haven’t, to this date and time, been hit maybe like some of the other schools, but we are certainly monitoring it. We certainly are having challenges right now. I’m not afraid to say that. Things are starting to trend the other way across the state,” he added.

McLaughlin stressed the importance of contract tracing, which many times reveals that transmission is occurring outside of school either from a family member or someone from another school.

Unlike Muncy, Loyalsock has not put a specific number of transmissions that would lead to going to remote instruction.

“I don’t think you can put a number, but I think if we hit what I would call a surge, like several cases in one building all at once, rather than sporadic, we certainly have some meeting and discussions. I think the other piece is, every time we get a case, we’re having detailed discussions with the Department of Health. We’re really relying on their guidance also,” he explained.

The Williamsport Area School District is also working with the Department of Health following a recent increase in the number of cases in the district.

“Over the course of the last week, there have been six confirmed cases across the district among our students and staff,” the district said in a statement issued Tuesday.

“Through contract tracing and working closely with the Department of Health, we have identified those who needed to quarantine to reduce the risk of further outbreaks,” the statement continued.

The district noted that due to the medical nature of the situation, specific groups which are affected would not be named.

“As has been our process since the start of the school year and in keeping in accordance with our Health and Safety Plan, notices will continue to be issued to our staff and district families when we receive notification of confirmed positive cases among our students and employees,” the statement concluded.