Layoffs — late-cycle hangover or AI?
U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October – the worst October since 2003 – and headlines rushed to blame AI. Fair question: were the recent layoffs really caused by AI? Mostly, no. Cost-cutting was the top reason in October, with AI a distant second (roughly 20% of those layoffs). The sectors leading reductions – tech and warehousing – are also the ones that over-hired during the boom and are now normalizing. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is tracking -4.0% real GDP growth again, keeping the “reacceleration” narrative alive. But a big slice of that ...