Sen. Joe Manchin announced recently that he has left the Democratic Party, switching his affiliation to independent, to very little public reaction or fanfare.

Perhaps it’s because rumors of the centrist Manchin going independent date back at least two years or so, even before fellow centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the Democrats to become an independent. Or maybe the lack of shockwaves has more to do with timing. Manchin made the announcement the same day that a jury in New York convicted former president and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records — another first for U.S. history and the former commander in chief.

Plus, it’s unlikely (although not entirely out of the question) that this means anything for the current election cycle. Manchin already announced that he’s not seeking reelection in the U.S. Senate and, just a few days prior to announcing his party switch, endorsed Democrat and old friend Steve Williams in the state governor’s race.

Manchin also squelched rumors of a presidential bit on a third-party ticket back in February.

MetroNews “Talkline” host Hoppy Kercheval mentioned that the timing of the switch is significant because Manchin could still get on the West Virginia ballot for a variety of offices, as long as he collects enough petition signatures before Aug. 1. Again, it seems unlikely that’s what Manchin is up to, although no one can say that with 100% certainty.

The move is significant in that it solidifies the changing of the guard in the West Virginia Democratic Party, which often was informally referred to as the “Party of Manchin” during his time as governor and in the Senate.

Under previous party leadership, West Virginia went from a blue state to deep red. In 2014, the Democratic Party lost a majority it had held in the state Legislature for 83 years. Jim Justice, Manchin’s recruit for governor in 2016, switched to the Republican Party eight months into his first term. In 2020, Republicans gained supermajority control in both chambers of the Legislature and now occupy all state constitutional offices.

Justice is likely to succeed Manchin in the Senate, meaning Republicans, barring a shocking defeat in either of the two U.S. House races, will hold all of the state’s congressional posts.

Democrats are trying to rebuild against a stiff tide, with only 11 seats out of 100 in the House of Delegates and a mere three in the 37-seat Senate. Now, not even Manchin, who was unquestionably the most powerful vote in the U.S. Senate from 2020 to 2022, ranks among their numbers.

Manchin, meanwhile, is likely positioning himself for something else down the road, although what that might be only he knows. He rarely does anything for no reason, and his motives likely will become clear soon enough.

— Gazette-Mail